Russia’s T-50 fifth-generation fighter logged its first flight this morning at 1119 local time from Komsomolsk-on-Amur. The new twin-engine aircraft features advanced low-observable technology in the infrared, optical, and radar spectrums.

As the flight testing progresses, I will not be surprised if the T-50 will give the F-35 a run for its money. In fact, I expect the T-50 will wind up somewhere between the F-35 and F-22 in total capability.

India is expected to be involved in the program, but only in the later stages. There is no indication that China is involved, though there may be some technology transfer as China is working on its own fifth-generation fighter.

A few hours ago, an Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737 departed Beirut bound for Addis Ababa, then disappeared from radar a few minutes later. The aircraft, which had ninety people on board, apparently crashed into the Mediterranean.

Beirut was experiencing heavy rain from a thunderstorm at the time the flight took off, and there are apparently reports that some residents of a coastal Lebanese village south of Beirut saw a fireball falling into the sea. Few details are known as of yet, but hopefully the aircraft will be located quickly so the investigation into the accident can begin.

This accident occured mere days after Boeing and Ethiopian Airlines revealed an order for ten new Boeing 737-800 aircraft, worth $767 million at list prices.

*Update* At this point (1510 Zulu) thirty-four bodies have been located, and work continues to recover the wreckage of the aircraft.

*Update 2* As of 1600 Zulu on the 26^th, the body count had been revised down to 14 due to confusion and double-counting initially. There are also reports that the pilot ignored the controller’s instructions to turn away from a strong storm cell.

There are always two sides to a story, and after Jason Calacanis blasted Comscore yesterday, I was not surprised to find that the other side of the story soon followed. Michael Arrington posts part of a response from Fred Wilson (who was specifically named in Jason’s rant), as well as a response from Comscore’s CMO Linda Abraham.

While both sides of the story do appear to have merit, and I can’t fault Comscore for their business model, they do still have the appearance of telling webmasters “if you pay us, we will provide more accurate numbers.” In today’s world, perception is nine-tenths of reality. Until Comscore clearly outlines how their numbers are obtained, and why it costs them so much to obtain accurate numbers, they will be down towards the bottom of the list when it comes time for me to find a company to provide me with traffic numbers for my website.

Jason Calacanis, CEO of Mahalo.com, has issued a call to boycott Comscore. I will be the first to admit that I am not terribly familiar with Comscore, but if half of what Jason mentions in his blog post is true, and I have no reason to believe that any of it is not true, then I whole-heartedly agree with boycotting them.

Boeing revealed today that an order from an unidentified customer for ten 737-800 aircraft was from Ethiopian Airlines.  Worth $767 million at list prices, the order will more than double the number of 737s that Ethiopian Airlines operates.

Since its inception, Ethiopian Airlines has flown Boeing aircraft exclusively, and was the first African airline to order the 787 in 2005, as well as the first African airline to operate the 777-200LR in 2009.

Ethiopian Airlines Boeing 737-800

Image courtesy of Boeing

A post today on the O’Reilly Radar blog by John Graham-Cumming provides an interesting look at the question of climate change. There is none of the tired rhetoric of whether global warming is occurring, or what is contributing to it. Instead, the author focuses on using real temperature data from 1850 to the present day and displays it in various visual formats.

This is actually quite refreshing. I appreciate having the data presented to me in a clear, understandable manner, then being allowed to reach my own conclusions. Obviously the data provided in the post is only part of the story, but it still speaks quite clearly that something changed in the last 40 years. I definitely recommend watching the video included in the post, since it does a great job of summarizing how the author got the output he did.

I always shudder mentally when I see a media source commenting on an aviation accident. Generally they tend to be inaccurate, and at times flat-out wrong. It is also not uncommon for the media to over-sensationalize the event.  With the recent runway overrun accidents in Jamaica and Scotland, I figured it wouldn’t be long before I would have to clarify some information that is being pumped out by the media.

The Watertown Daily Times published a short article today, that on the surface seems to indicate that there is a major problem with runway overruns. Now I will be the first to say that every accident is one accident too many. However, it does aviation in general, and the airlines in particular, a disservice to provide data without context.

Using the Wall Street Journal figures quoted in the article, it may be fair to say that 30% of commercial aircraft accidents between 1995 and 2008 were the result of runway overruns. During that time period, the NTSB recorded 498 commercial aircraft accidents of all kinds, so the 30% figure provided by the WSJ would indicate there were approximately 149 runway overrun accidents. Unfortunately the Watertown Daily Times article does not provide a link to the WSJ article that mentions those figures, so it is difficult to determine how the WSJ arrived at those figures.

For the sake of argument however, we will go with the 30% figure. Now, 498 total commercial accidents and 149 runway overrun accidents seems like a lot, and it is. Keep in mind however, the number of aircraft that travel through the skies every day. As of right now (2151 EDT, 0251 GMT), FlightAware is currently tracking 3,149 aircraft in US airspace (including both commercial and GA aircraft). That means that in the air above our heads right now, there are at least that many aircraft. That does not include GA aircraft that are flying VFR, and therefore not required to file a flight plan or, in some cases, even be in contact with ATC. FlightAware also indicates that in the past 24 hours they tracked just over thirty-five thousand aircraft arrivals (again, including both commercial and GA aircraft).

Most flights that occur every day are commercial flights. However, for the sake of argument, let’s see what happens if we split that figure in half between commercial and GA flights. That would give us 17,500 commercial flights in the past 24 hours. A little on the light side perhaps, but that’s winter weather for you. Now if we use the 17,500 commercial flights as a daily average, that would give us 83,037,500 flights during the 13 year period during which 30% of commercial aircraft accidents were caused by runway overruns according to the WSJ. That means that 0.00018% of commercial flights resulted in a runway overrun. Is that a big problem? Yes, it’s a big problem, but perhaps not quite as big as the Watertown Daily Times would have you believe.

Yes, most runway overrun accidents are the result of contaminated runways. The accident in Scotland, for example, occurred when the aircraft had already slowed and was turning off of the runway. Initial reports indicate that one or more of the aircraft’s landing gear hit some black ice, causing the aircraft to slide off the runway into the grass. No one was hurt, and damage to the aircraft will most likely be minimal.

The Kingston accident was more extreme. The aircraft went off the end of the runway at a high-speed, through the airport fence, across a road, and ended up stopped next to a beach with the fuselage broken into several pieces. Several people were hurt, but there were no fatalities. It is too early to tell what happened to cause this result, so implying that pilot judgment is to blame is irresponsible.

Perhaps the best sentence in the Watertown Daily Times’ article is the last one. “It will be interesting to see what investigators find about the recent runway overrun in Jamaica.”

I just had the opportunity to watch the movie Invictus, starring Morgan Freeman and Matt Damon. I have been looking forward to seeing the movie ever since it was released, since I spent several years living in Swaziland, right next door to South Africa, and I was there during the time the events of the movie were taking place.

To my shame, I did not pay much attention to what was going on in South Africa either politically or on the sports scene while I was living in that part of the world. I was young and preoccupied with school, but that really isn’t much of an excuse. So it was refreshing to see a movie that dealt with events that happened very close to home, so to speak.

The movie was well done, but I am not sure many American viewers will understand the portions of rugby that are portrayed in the movie. However, rugby is only part of the movie. There is a great deal of politics present in regards to what Mandela had to work through after becoming South Africa’s president, as well as some of Mandela’s personal history. Overall, a great story and a great movie.

It does make me wonder though, are there any sports that could bring the entire US together as rugby united South Africa in 1995? I rather doubt it.

Go Bokke!

My brother treated me to the movie Avatar for my birthday. I will admit that I had not payed too much attention to the hype about the movie, so I wasn’t entirely too sure what to expect when it started. Suffice to say, I was not disappointed.

The basic story line is an old one: humans visit new world/continent/place, humans discover valuable ore/product/medicine, humans try to talk the natives/savages/indigenous people to provide it willingly, humans decide they can just take it when the natives/savages/indigenous people refuse, a small group of humans help the natives/savages/indigenous people fight back and kick the humans’ collective asses with vastly inferior weapons.

Avatar does bring some brand new ideas to the table, though. The biggest being the “avatars” that a small group of human scientists use to interact with the natives. These avatars are a hybrid blending of DNA from a native and a human, and while they look exactly like the natives on the planet, the avatar is actually controlled by the human who provided the DNA to create it through a piece of equipment that creates a mental link between the human and the avatar. The avatar has no consciousness of its own, and without the mental link between it and the human controlling it, it simply collapses like a puppet who’s strings have been cut.

Another interesting feature of the story, while not entirely unique, is the inclusion of a planet-wide “intelligence.” The natives are able to interact with some of the local flora and fauna on a “plug-and-play” level (you’ll understand that when you see the movie) that is rather interesting, and there is a “deity” worshiped by the natives that holds all of the memories of the preceding generations.

Even though the story is somewhat predictable, it flows well and there are enough twists and surprises to keep it worthwhile.

I saved the best part for last. If you come for the story, you have to stay for the visuals. From the equipment and weapons used by the humans, to the flora and fauna of the planet, to the simply breathtaking scenery dotted throughout the movie, I found very little to complain about in the visual effects department. With very few exceptions, all of the visuals were extremely well done.

My only real complaint, if you want to call it that, is that the natives were portrayed a little too human-like. Yes, it was quite obvious that they had originated on another planet, but their society and mentality could have come straight out of some of the early civilizations of Earth. Granted, Earth does not necessarily have a monopoly on societal structures, and if there really are other intelligent life-forms out there there is no reason why they couldn’t develop their own versions of, say Capitalism or Socialism, but you just expect something different from a race of people from another planet.

I would definitely recommend the movie. There are a few swear words, but overall the dialogue is fairly clean. Still, there are some sequences with violence, and though they are not graphic, it may not be suitable for younger audiences. I think the PG-13 rating is well deserved on this one.

Sometime yesterday, this blog was viewed for the 1,000^th time. That means that somewhere, out there, there are people actually reading what I write. I am both surprised and flattered. Still not getting much in the way of feedback, but I am sure that will come in time. So, how long until we hit 2,000 views?